think I’m surprising anybody when I say that it’s a very serious situation, and we are in a point in our history in this coun-try where we really have to take a strong look at what we’re doing as far as our markets and our American diversifica -tion strategies go, because 70 per cent is significant.” When breaking down forest products production across Atlantic Canada, New Brunswick produces 74 per cent of all forest products in the region, followed by Nova Scotia (23 per cent) and Newfound -land (3 per cent). Many people in the region are con-cerned by comments made by U.S. Presi -dent Donald Trump who has stated that the U.S. does not need any Canadian lumber or wood products. While those comments should be taken seriously, the data shows a need for Canadian wood products to meet U.S. domestic market demand. The overall Canadian share of U.S. consumption of softwood lumber in 2024 was approximately 12 billion bdft. out of a total U.S. consumption of 49.8 billion bdft., comprising about 24 per cent of U.S. total consumption. Merriam stated that for the U.S. to re -move its dependence on Canadian lumber and source those products from U.S. mills, the country would need to build up signifi -cant capacity that could take up to 10 years to generate, not including the additional challenges of finding the capital invest -ment, required fibre supply, and staff. This does not take into account a rise in demand for U.S. housing over the next decade. However, the upcoming combined countervailing duties (CVD) and an -ti-dumping (AD) duties from preliminary results of the sixth administrative review are troubling. Many Canadian forest prod-ucts companies could be looking at total CVD and AD rates ranging from 34.45 per cent to 46.48 per cent as soon as this com-ing August. “This isn’t in effect yet. It could be anywhere from August to October before it takes effect. It’s not 100-per-cent guar -anteed, but usually when they come out with a preliminary review like this, it’s pretty accurate,” Merriam said. He added that this would not include any additional tariffs that the Trump Administra -tion could apply to Canadian products. “This is something we have to be aware of, and we need industry at large to help sort this stuff out and help with new ideas and thoughts as to how we navigate the world that we live in right now, because our sector is so important to the economy. It’s so ultra-important to our rural commu -nities,” Merriam said. DOMESTIC OPPORTUNITIES Merriam also spoke about domestic op -portunities during his presentation to help the forest products sector become more self-sustaining. One area he touched on was the relationship between the Canadian popu-lation forecast and housing affordability. “We have growth in this country. We’re currently just over 40 million people in Canada, and we’re growing,” he told the crowd, adding that housing affordability is a major issue in the current federal elec -tion. “We’re one of the sectors that can help make that happen. We can find a way. We have the resources, and we certainly have the skill. We just have to have the drive to push it forward and to have the political pull to do so.” By 2030, Canada could be facing a housing supply deficit of about 3.5 million units. This is an opportunity for the coun -try’s forest products sector to push forward with more mid-rise construction projects, which are on the rise in Atlantic Canada. “They’re high-performing buildings. They meet code every day of the week, and they are a really a good solution for how to have affordable housing solu-tions,” Merriam said. “They’re a direct competitor with other building products and the speed of construction is very fast. Developers love it, and now that we’re getting on board with the changes in the codes to allow for six-storey stick frame, you’re seeing them go up all over the place. This is good utilization of our do -mestic wood products that we make right here in our own backyard.” Mass timber projects using products like cross-laminated timber (CLT) are another opportunity for Canada’s forest products sector to grow by domestically supplying the country’s construction sector. “It’s a very high-performing product. It’s garnering a lot of interest and a lot of uptake right now in Canada, and this is a wonderful utilization of our forest prod-ucts that we make in our own backyard,” Merriam said, noting that a firm in Chicago was able to successfully design a 52-sto-rey building constructed with 100-per-cent CLT for the roofs, floors and walls. In Nova Scotia, there is currently a mass timber manufacturing facility in the process of being developed. “It’s well on its way right now to hav -ing shovels in the ground pretty soon, and I really hope that happens, because that will really spur a lot of interest in the sector,” Merriam said. He added that the use of wood products in bridge construction, industrial build-ings and educational institutions are other domestic opportunities for Canada’s forest products sector to pursue. INTERNATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES Not that long ago, the majority of wood products produced in Atlantic Canada used to be shipped to the U.K. The MLB, work -ing with other parties, recently developed a new market study and are looking at ways to reinvigorate the region’s forest products sector relationships with the U.K. Merriam noted that Canada also has good working relationships with the European Union (EU). “We’ve taken delegations over to Ger -many and Austria within the last couple of years to work with them on trade,” he said. Merriam added that Canada has pre-ferred market access to 51 foreign countries. “We are a global force when it comes to forest products and we’re going to stay that way. We just don’t lay down and decide that we give up, and throw our hands in the air and decide that we’re going to stop everything to do with forestry. This is our livelihoods. This is what we do,” he said. Merriam concluded his presentation by reminding the crowd that today’s chal -lenging climate is far from the first chal -lenge this industry has experienced in recent history. “We’ve been dealing with the Cana -da-U.S. software lumber agreement now for 30-plus years. We’re used to it,” he said. • Canadian BIOMASS 27
Canadian Biomass Spring 2025: Page 27
