Industrial Wood Pellet Sector -Past Demand and Forecast with Evolving Policy in Japan, U.S., Canada, and Germany Global Pellet Demand with the Forecast Under Evolving Policy in Industrial Sector including Japan Co-firing Figure 3 als, paper, packaging, and tissue. Pellet producers use the by-prod-ucts from those industries and logs that are unsuitable for them. Current policies that support the substitution of coal for pellets already impose strict standards and rigorous third-party auditing that ensures the carbon stock in the working forests is not being depleted. Future policy must do the same. There is room for significant growth in the wood pellet indus-try, but there are limits. In other words, the use of pellet fuel in coal stations can only be a part of a much broader power sector decarbonization strategy. So, what will this mean for the wood pellet export markets in 2022 and beyond, particularly in Canada? The rest of this article looks to provide some insights on this topic. Table 1 and Figure 1 on the previous page show the exports from the major pellet exporting regions. Figure 4 FutureMetrics expects demand to increase by 8.9 per cent from 2021 to 2022 and by another 14.8 per cent from 2022 to 2023. In 2023, FutureMetrics expects modest new demand in the U.S. and Canada as decarbonization policies evolve. Japan and Germany are expected to add about one million tonnes per year of demand in 2023. However, under a scenario in which U.S., German, and Japa-nese policy evolves over the next five years, demand for pellet fuel could grow at an annualized rate of 3.73 million metric tonnes per year. Figure 3 shows this scenario. As FutureMetrics has discussed in its white papers (free to download from the FutureMetrics website), given the increasing Your Solution for Bulk Material Handling. Pellets Woodchips Biomass TRUCK DUMPERS TRAILER TIPPERS RECEIVING HOPPERS airoflex.com 14 Canadian BIOMASS CB_Hoffmann_Fall21.indd 1 [email protected] 563-506-5085 WINTER 2022 2021-10-12 10:22 AM
Canadian Biomass Winter 2022: Page 14
