waterproof pellets made via steam exploded thermal treatment technology will significantly lower the required capital costs for modifications to the power station and will eliminate the need for dry fuel storage solutions. Using advanced pellets will allow higher co-firing ratios for lower cost than for traditional wood pellets. Chart 2 shows the historical demand and FutureMetrics’ demand forecast for the industrial wood pellet markets. The aggregate demand in 2019 is estimated to be about 16.2 million tonnes. That is the equivalent of a 55,000-tonne panamax vessel every day of the year. Note that this demand forecast is based on current policy. The drop fro 2018 to 2019 is due to lower demand in South Korea and Denmark. This is expected to recover and surpass those levels by the end of 2021. As shown in Chart 2, future demand in the U.K. and EU is expected to plateau by 2021. However, major growth is expected in Japan and South Korea until 2024. From 2010 to 2025, the average annual increase in demand for industrial wood pellets is estimated at about 2.3 CHART 2 million tonnes per year. This forecast, as noted above, is under current policy. Policies are likely to evolve as the impacts of climate change accelerate. FutureMetrics expects even the U.S. to have a policy for carbon emissions reduction by the mid-2020s. SUPPLY OF INDUSTRIAL WOOD PELLETS North America currently dominates the global supply of industrial wood pellets. See Chart 3. The industrial wood pellet market began in Europe and, with the evolution of the Drax power stations’ conversion from coal to pellets, grew significantly in the U.K. The ability to source abundant and competitively priced wood fibre in western Canada via sawmill residuals enabled B.C. to lead the way. The first trans-oceanic bulk shipment of wood pellets left Prince Rupert, B.C., in 1998, 22 years ago. FutureMetrics’ partner and operations expert, John Your Solution for Bulk Material Handling. Pellets Woodchips Hemp TRUCK DUMPERS TRAILER TIPPERS RECEIVING HOPPERS airoflex.com [email protected] 563-264-8066 Canadian BIOMASS CBM_HoffmanAiroflex_Summer19_CSA.indd 1 2019-07-02 1:12 PM 25
Canadian Biomass Winter 2020: Page 25
