Biomass Abounds? In the land of plenty, only a fool goes hungry. Will we all be starving in 10 years? I love the contrarian’s view. In almost 20 years of forestry writing I’ve even made a decent living at it. No matter how sen- sible a viewpoint seems, I get nervous when too many heads are nodding agreement. So when Jimmy Girvan, a fibre supply analyst from Victoria, BC, asked if I’d like to hear about a forecast model that shows a less than rosy picture of biomass avail- ability in BC some 10 years out, I said hell yeah. Girvan and Murray Hall tease us with some biomass availability forecasts for the central Interior starting on page 17. The future they paint is of a new subsidized biomass sector competing with the traditional forest products sector for a declining fibre supply. As sawmills shut down in the face of increasingly marginal-quality beetle-kill sawlogs, pulp and panel plants will go to the woods for their fibre supply to replace the easy money of sawmill residues. Girvan and Hall imply that emerging policies to support bioenergy may be stacking the deck against these traditional players, and not always to the benefit of local employment. Now before you think I’m joining a new chorus of nodding heads, here are a few words of caution to consider while reading this article. All models are based on assumptions and specific data. I don’t know either in this case, so you’d want to explore this further before deciding biomass is not the right fit for the BC Interior. All fibre supplies are regional, and none more so than biomass because of the econom- ics of moving low-value wood. There may be many opportunities for local biomass entrepre- neurs, regardless of how limited the big picture seems. Given that many of BC’s pulp and existing 6 CanadianBIOMASS and proposed panel plants have had a tough time competing using readily available and relatively cheap sawmill residues, how will they compete when they have to go hunting for fibre in the woods? This is a BC Interior study. Regions like cen- tral and northeastern New Brunswick, eastern Ontario, Quebec, northern Ontario, Saskatchewan, southeastern BC, coastal BC, and many border states have seen a near collapse of their tradi- tional pulp and panel indus- tries. In some of these cases, it’s biomass or nothing else. Finally, when it comes to government policy, is diver- sity really a bad thing? Look around at some of today’s forestry ghost towns and ask yourself whether a return to a pulp and panel dominated forest sector is in the best interest of communi- ties and the Crown. As the Internet continues to erode the demand for magazine and newsprint in North America, 10 years of market shifts becomes a long time. Will my 11-year old and her friends provide the newsprint market BC Interior mills hope for? I’m not so sure, but I’ll guarantee she’ll want heat and light. It is likely that in most regions, biomass and bioenergy will find their places alongside tradi- tional wood and forest products, offering loggers and mills another potential revenue stream. In some regions, pulp mills and panel plants will be better able to compete. In others, they’ve al- ready lost the battle. Still, the fact remains that faced with a push to biomass consumption in the central BC Interior, the forecasts of Girvan and Hall should be fodder for serious debate.• Scott Jamieson, Editor/Group Publisher [email protected] BIOMASS CANADIAN Volume 4 Editor/Group Publisher - Scott Jamieson (514) 457-2211 ext 24 [email protected] Field Editor - Heather Hager (519) 429-3966 ext 261 [email protected] Western Editor - Bill Tice Market Production Manager Josée Crevier (514) 457-2211 ext 21 [email protected] National Sales Managers Tim Tolton - [email protected] 450-458-4341 Guy Fortin - [email protected] 90 Morgan Rd, Unit 14 Baie d’Urfé, Que H9X 3A8 Ph: (514) 457-2211 Fax: (514) 457-2558 Western Sales Manager Tim Shaddick - [email protected] 1660 West 75th Ave Vancouver, B.C. V6P 6G2 Ph: (604) 264-1158 Fax: (604) 264-1367 Production Artist - Brooke Shaw Canadian Biomass is published five times a year; March, June, August, October, and December. Published and printed by Annex Publishing & Printing Inc., and distributed as a supplement to Canadian Forest Industries and Canadian Wood Products magazines. Printed in Canada ISSN 0318-4277 Circulation e-mail: [email protected] Tel: (514) 457-2211 Fax: (514) 457-2558 Mail: 90 Morgan Rd, Unit 14 Baie d’Urfé, Que H9X 3A8 Subscription Rates: Canada - 1 Yr $48; 2 Yr $85; 3 Yr $115 Single Copy - $6.00 (Canadian prices do not include applicable taxes) USA – 1 Yr $44 US; 2 Yr $75 US Foreign – 1 Yr $75 US From time to time, we at Canadian Biomass make our subscription list available to reputable companies and organizations whose products and services we believe may be of interest to you. If you do not want your name to be made available, contact our circulation department in any of the four ways listed above. No part of the editorial content of this publication may be reprinted without the publisher’s written permission ©2009 Annex Publishing & Printing Inc. All rights reserved. Opinions expressed in this magazine are not necessarily those of the editor or publisher. No liability is assumed for errors or omissions. All advertising is subject to the publisher’s approval. Such approval does not imply any endorsement of the products or services advertised. Publisher reserves the right to refuse advertising that does not meet the standards of the publication. www.canadianforestindustries.ca
Canadian Biomass June 2009: Page 6
